Work package 4: Macroeconomic effects of RE expansion on economic growth and employment

A model-based, consistent scenario is developed for Germany until the year 2030 in order to estimate the net effects. This scenario includes assumptions about demographic development, economic growth, developments in the energy industry and energy prices which are closely oriented on the lead scenarios of the BMU or policy scenarios.

By further developing the macroeconomic model ASTRA Germany (ASTRA-D model), the determined innovation effects, distributional effects and interactions can be integrated into the overall economic analysis.

Additional layers of differentiation in the macroeconomic model ASTRA-D are carried out, for example, modelling different income groups or integrating further sectoral and/or socio-economic typological variables.

The aim is to quantify results for the following areas:

• Changes in the overall economic growth and employment
• Changes in the value added and employment in economic sectors
• Income adjustments by income group and/or household group
• Changes in government spending (e.g. taxes and expenditure for the unemployed)
• Effects of compensation measures which may be discussed (e.g. for low-income households)